Possible War 2022 - What is published in the Review does not constitute the position or policy of the Government or its members.
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Possible War 2022
On February 24, 2022, it will likely write itself onto the map of modern world history. Russia's unprovoked, unjustified and barbaric attack on Ukraine represents just one serious security threat that has undermined peace in Europe.
Russia Ukraine War: Insights And Analysis
Effectively, it has undermined the security architecture built over many years on the African continent, including international commitments agreed over the past 30 years. As Britain's top general recently observed, it would be wrong to think the war in Ukraine is a minor conflict. This may be "our moment 1937", and everything possible must be done to prevent the expansion of territory by force, thus avoiding a war like the one that has engulfed Europe in the last 80 years. Our content collection should start today.
The damage caused by the ongoing conflict in Ukraine is high and growing. Entire cities – such as Mariupol – have been razed to the ground. Photo: City of Mariupol © CNN
The extent of the damage is extensive and still mounting. Ukrainians (military and civilians alike) are killed for being Ukrainians. Entire cities – such as Mariupol – have been razed to the ground. Visible atrocities on the scale of war crimes are being committed and genocide is being broadcast on Russian state television. Thousands of people, including children, were forcibly deported from Russia. More than six million (at the time of writing) have had to flee Ukraine; Many others were moved forward. Hospitals, infrastructure, cultural assets, private homes and factories are destroyed or looted, and stolen goods are systematically shipped to Russia.
Ukraine's suffering is a challenge for Europe and the world. Human rights and the UN Charter are trampled and our values are insulted. Ignorance is not an option. As Nicholas Tanzer has well explained: This is a war against the West.
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In his own words, Putin's regime has decided to confront the "common West", regardless of the cost to Russia. All security and confidence-building efforts, or institutional arrangements designed to maintain peace, suddenly look more fragile when faced with unseen forces. After months of embarrassing negotiations and shameless lies by Moscow against other countries and institutions, including the OBS, all trust has been lost. In addition, by creating economic instability in energy markets and weaponizing hunger as a political tool, Russia has further diffused the effects of war.
Russia has also deliberately raised the threat level of the use of nuclear weapons, the main goal of which is to discourage Western countries from providing military aid to Ukraine and to intimidate decision-makers. A longstanding ban making the use of nuclear power impossible has been verbally abandoned. While most experts estimate the risk is likely to be low — less than five percent — Putin and his aides have decided to abandon the extreme caution practiced by many of his Soviet predecessors. Compared to the Cold War, today, Kremlin propagandists and officials engage in unsubstantiated rhetoric in support of the use of Russian nuclear weapons against Ukraine, and possibly even internationally. This is supported by exercises (at least two this year) that openly test the Russian military's ability to fire nuclear weapons against Western attacks and defend Russia against nuclear attacks. The Russian president has also expressed his desire to bring Belarus to nuclear parity. Such technology has contributed to the nuclear weapons response to global energy competition.
With the scale of the nuclear threat, Russia's neighbors already have good reason to fear Russia's beasts. They think Putin may attack other areas if he is not stopped in Ukraine and in Ukraine. The historic decision of Finland and Sweden to apply for membership shows the seriousness of this issue. Smaller countries, such as Moldova and Georgia, but also Moscow's official allies, such as Kazakhstan, may fear becoming Putin's targets. The Kremlin did not try to get rid of this fear, but increased its influence through direct threats, propaganda and intimidation. Recent examples include cutting off gas supplies for political reasons, violating the country's airspace, threatening Lithuania, and using economic pressure against Kazakhstan, a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization.
And the European Union responded positively in the first months of the war. The US administration has reiterated its importance in mobilizing international forces, particularly in coordinating military support for Ukraine. The response to war, strong support for Ukraine and a reasonable refusal to avoid open conflict with Russia, is more or less confirmed. Most European countries have turned to a tried and tested security policy supported by the military capabilities of the United States. The G7 and the European Union are seen as determined to tighten sanctions.
Is A Moral Response To War Possible Today?
However, as the invasion continues and Russia's attempts to seize eastern and southern Ukraine through military warfare, Western alliances are being tested. The different definitions of sanctions affecting the transit of contraband into Kaliningrad reflect this problem.
The UN and OBS, largely due to Russia's crippling influence, have not been able to provide concrete solutions. Moreover, cooperation with Ukraine is not universal among all UN members.
The legend of Russia's invincible military machine changed in a matter of weeks. The initial goals of the attack are clearly not being achieved. Russian troops had to retreat from the Kiev area and suffered losses elsewhere. Ukraine's bravery and efficient use of limited resources (supported by foreign aid) have so far proved a strong match against those who are poorly managed, without goals and plans, who also face technical and technical problems such as inadequate equipment. Corruption, the disease at the heart of the Russian state, manifests itself on a large scale in the management of military operations. Russia's losses are high and, although controlled, known to the Russian population.
The West may try to moderate Ukraine's exports to undermine Russia's threat to Ukraine's black ports. Image © Euromaiden Press
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After more than four months of fighting, it is Russia that is facing a manpower shortage. Fearing opposition, the Kremlin refused to call on propagandists and was forced to take extraordinary measures (eg raising the age limit for volunteers to join the war), opting for secret recruitment methods such as the use of security forces. Many reports from the Russian military office show that many young men refuse to be sent to the Ukrainian front. About four million Russians have moved to Russia so far in 2022, many choosing not to return this time. It is the largest since the Bolshevik Revolution and could result in a massive brain drain across the country; Something that has become evident in the IT sector.
Moreover, the war proved costly. On 27 May, Finance Minister Siluanov admitted that "extraordinary operations require a lot of money, resources". He also confirmed that $8 billion (US$120b) of fiscal stimulus is needed. The sanctions are starting to bite and will set the Russian economy — which cannot produce large quantities of goods without foreign technology or components — for decades. Generally, unemployment is likely to rise while GDP is unlikely to rise.
Putin has turned Russia into an international pariah and this country will not recover its name for a long time. Although Russia's politics are currently authoritarian, there are some signs of dissent (even among high-ranking diplomats) that this trend is growing. As one leading Russian expert put it, Putin has "cut off Russia's future". Russia must be a weak, weak player in the future.
But barring Putin's sudden departure — which would bring political change in Moscow — Russia will continue to pose a security threat to Europe. A government led by a disillusioned and old dictator often takes irrational decisions. But the poor conduct of military campaigns (for example, the indiscriminate use of stealth bombs) means that even an inefficient Russian army can gain an advantage over the Ukrainian military, despite its rapid modernization.
How Did The War Become Possible?
Ukraine's ability to fend off Russian aggression will change the environment for years to come. At a meeting held in Madrid in June 2022, it recognized this and offered the latest support. The size and speed with which more heavy weapons systems (including heavy artillery, missile systems, armored vehicles and air defense systems) are being delivered to Ukraine in the coming weeks is critical.
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